Martin Vinæs Larsen


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Phone: (+45) 60 716545
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I am an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at Aarhus University. My research focuses on electoral accountability, policy-feedback effects and the politics of housing.

Some of my research is published or forthcoming in The American Political Science Review, The Journal of Politics, British Journal of Political Science and Political Behavior.

Off duty, I am an avid listener of podcasts, watcher of TV shows and reader of books about American politics and history. I also have a toddler and a baby to keep me up at night.


How Do Voters Hold Politicians Accountable for Personal Welfare? Evidence of a Self-Serving Bias.
Early View at The Journal of Politics.
[pdf]   [replication materials]


When Does Accommodation Work? Electoral Effects of Mainstream Left Position-Taking on Immigration (with Frederik Hjorth).
Forthcoming at the British Journal of Political Science.
[pdf] [replication materials]


Do Survey Estimates of the Public's Compliance with COVID-19 Regulations Suffer from Social Desirability Bias? (with Michael Bang Petersen and Jacob Nyrup).
Early View at The Journal of Behavioral Public Administration.
[pdf] [replication materials]


Can Citizens Set City Policy? Evidence From a Decentralized Welfare State (with Benjamin Egerod).
Early View at Urban Affairs Review.


Incumbent Tenure Crowds Out Economic Voting. 2019.
Eearly View in the British Journal of Political Science.
[pdf]   [replication materials]


When Do Citizens Respond Politically to the Local Economy? Evidence from Registry Data on Local Housing Markets (with Frederik Hjorth, Peter Dinesen and Kim Sønderskov). 2019.
American Political Science Review, 113(2), 499-516.
[pdf]   [replication materials]


Reducing Bias in Citizens’ Perception of Crime Rates: Evidence From a Field Experiment on Burglary Prevalence (with Asmus Olsen). 2019.
Early View at The Journal of Politics.  
[pdf]   [replication materials]


Is the relationship between political responsibility and electoral accountability causal, adaptive and policy-specific? 2019.
Political Behavior, 41(4), 1071–1098.
[pdf]   [replication materials]


Putting a Number on Preferences: How Numerical Attitudes Are Shaped by Ideology and Equivalency Framing (with Rasmus Tue Pedersen). 2019.
International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 31 (3), 528–548.  
[pdf]   [replication materials]


How campaigns enhance European issues voting during European Parliament elections (with Derek Beach and Kasper Møller Hansen). 2018.
Political Science Research and Methods, 6(4), 791-808.  
[pdf]   [replication materials]


How Election Polls Shape Voting Behavior (with Kasper Møller Hansen, Jens Olav Dahlgaard and Jonas Hedegaard Hansen). 2017.
Scandinavian Political Studies, 40(3),330-343..


Does information increase turnout in European Parliament elections? Evidence from a quasi-experiment in Denmark (with Esben Hogh). 2016.
JCMS: Journal of Common Market studies, 54 (6), 1495-1508.
[pdf]   [replication materials]


Economic Conditions Affect Support for Prime Minister Parties in Scandinavia. 2016.
Scandinavian Political Studies, 39 (3), 226-241.  
[pdf]   [replication materials]


Regression to causality: Regression-style presentation influences causal attribution (with Mats Bordacconi). 2014.
Research and politics, 1(2).  
[pdf]   [replication materials]


Party Brands and Voting (with Sigge Nielsen). 2014.
Electoral Studies, 33 (2), 153-165.  


Sheltering Populists? House Prices and the Support for Populist Parties.
Working Paper.



Spring 2020: Causal Inference.

Fall 2018 and Spring 2019: Electoral Accountability.

Fall 2018: Advanced Political Behavior.

At the University of Copenhagen:

Spring 2015: New and Classic Approaches to Political Behavior (Nominated for teacher of the year 2015).

Spring 2015: Advanced Quantitative Methods.

Spring 2014: Theories and Approaches to Political Science.

Fall 2010-13: Methods 1 (Nominated for teacher of the year 2012).